We thank the reviewers for the valuable feedback and address specific comments below. We plan to expand Section 2.1 with additional explanation to make the paper more self-contained. Although the samples are not i.i.d., no burn-in or thinning is used. Defining such moves does require some domain expertise. We plan to include updated Guacamol results in the paper.

Novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have enabled the generation of large ensembles of redistricting plans through graph partitioning. However, existing algorithms such as Reversible Recombination (RevReCom) and Metropolized Forest Recombination (MFR) are constrained to sampling from distributions related to spanning trees. We introduce the marked edge walk (MEW), a novel MCMC algorithm for sampling from the space of graph partitions under a tunable distribution. The walk operates on the space of spanning trees with marked edges, allowing for calculable transition probabilities for use in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Empirical results on real-world dual graphs show convergence under target distributions unrelated to spanning trees. For this reason, MEW represents an advancement in flexible ensemble generation. Introduction Recent advances in computational capabilities have greatly increased legislators' abilities to optimize political redistricting plans.

One of the major problems in Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the fact that the probability distribution of the test data in the real world could deviate substantially from the probability distribution of the training data set. When this happens, the predictions of an ML system or an AI agent could involve large errors which is very troublesome and undesirable. While this is a well-known hard problem plaguing the AI and ML systems' accuracy and reliability, in certain applications such errors could be critical for safety and reliability of AI and ML systems. One approach to deal with this problem is to monitor and measure the deviation in the probability distribution of the test data in real time and to compensate for this deviation. In this paper, we propose and explore the use of Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) Test for measuring the distribution shift and we show how the KS distance can be used to quantify the distribution shift and its impact on an AI agent's performance. Our results suggest that KS distance could be used as a valuable statistical tool for monitoring and measuring the distribution shift. More specifically, it is shown that even a distance of KS=0.02 could lead to about 50\% increase in the travel time at a single intersection using a Reinforcement Learning agent which is quite significant. It is hoped that the use of KS Test and KS distance in AI-based smart transportation could be an important step forward for gauging the performance degradation of an AI agent in real time and this, in turn, could help the AI agent to cope with the distribution shift in a more informed manner.

Distribution estimation under local differential privacy (LDP) is a fundamental and challenging task. Significant progresses have been made on categorical data. However, due to different evaluation metrics, these methods do not work well when transferred to numerical data. In particular, we need to prevent the probability mass from being misplaced far away. In this paper, we propose a new approach that express the sample distribution using wavelet expansions. The coefficients of wavelet series are estimated under LDP. Our method prioritizes the estimation of low-order coefficients, in order to ensure accurate estimation at macroscopic level. Therefore, the probability mass is prevented from being misplaced too far away from its ground truth. We establish theoretical guarantees for our methods. Experiments show that our wavelet expansion method significantly outperforms existing solutions under Wasserstein and KS distances.

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm to train a regression function to improve the conditional coverage after applying the split conformal prediction procedure. We establish an upper bound for the miscoverage gap between the conditional coverage and the nominal coverage rate and propose an end-to-end algorithm to control this upper bound. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method empirically on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Selecting suitable architecture parameters and training hyperparameters is essential for enhancing machine learning (ML) model performance. Several recent empirical studies conduct large-scale correlational analysis on neural networks (NNs) to search for effective \emph{generalization metrics} that can guide this type of model selection. Effective metrics are typically expected to correlate strongly with test performance. In this paper, we expand on prior analyses by examining generalization-metric-based model selection with the following objectives: (i) focusing on natural language processing (NLP) tasks, as prior work primarily concentrates on computer vision (CV) tasks; (ii) considering metrics that directly predict \emph{test error} instead of the \emph{generalization gap}; (iii) exploring metrics that do not need access to data to compute. From these objectives, we are able to provide the first model selection results on large pretrained Transformers from Huggingface using generalization metrics. Our analyses consider (I) hundreds of Transformers trained in different settings, in which we systematically vary the amount of data, the model size and the optimization hyperparameters, (II) a total of 51 pretrained Transformers from eight families of Huggingface NLP models, including GPT2, BERT, etc., and (III) a total of 28 existing and novel generalization metrics. Despite their niche status, we find that metrics derived from the heavy-tail (HT) perspective are particularly useful in NLP tasks, exhibiting stronger correlations than other, more popular metrics. To further examine these metrics, we extend prior formulations relying on power law (PL) spectral distributions to exponential (EXP) and exponentially-truncated power law (E-TPL) families.

This paper studies clustering of data sequences using the k-medoids algorithm. All the data sequences are assumed to be generated from \emph{unknown} continuous distributions, which form clusters with each cluster containing a composite set of closely located distributions (based on a certain distance metric between distributions). The maximum intra-cluster distance is assumed to be smaller than the minimum inter-cluster distance, and both values are assumed to be known. The goal is to group the data sequences together if their underlying generative distributions (which are unknown) belong to one cluster. Distribution distance metrics based k-medoids algorithms are proposed for known and unknown number of distribution clusters. Upper bounds on the error probability and convergence results in the large sample regime are also provided. It is shown that the error probability decays exponentially fast as the number of samples in each data sequence goes to infinity. The error exponent has a simple form regardless of the distance metric applied when certain conditions are satisfied. In particular, the error exponent is characterized when either the Kolmogrov-Smirnov distance or the maximum mean discrepancy are used as the distance metric. Simulation results are provided to validate the analysis.